The data is related to the direct marketing campaign of a Portuguese banking institution. The marketing campaign was based on phone calls. This dataset is publicly available for research. The original data set in CSV format can be found at:

https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/bank+marketing

Number of records: 4521

Number of variables: 17.

List of variables:

1 - age (numeric)

2 - job : type of job (categorical:"admin.","unknown","unemployed","management","housemaid","entrepreneur","student", "bluecollar"," self-employed","retired","technician","services")

3 - marital : marital status (categorical: "married","divorced","single"; note: "divorced" means divorced or widowed)

4 - education (categorical: "unknown","secondary","primary","tertiary")

5 - default: has credit in default? (binary: "yes","no")

6 - balance: average yearly balance, in euros (numeric)

7 - housing: has housing loan? (binary: "yes","no")

8 - loan: has personal loan? (binary: "yes","no")

related with the last contact of the current campaign:

9 - contact: contact communication type (categorical: "unknown","telephone","cellular")

10 - day: last contact day of the month (numeric)

11 - month: last contact month of year (categorical: "jan", "feb", "mar", ..., "nov", "dec")

12 - duration: last contact duration, in seconds (numeric)

13 - campaign: number of contacts performed during this campaign and for this client (numeric, includes last contact)

14 - pdays: number of days that passed by after the client was last contacted from a previous campaign (numeric, -1 means client was not previously contacted)

15 - previous: number of contacts performed before this campaign and for this client (numeric)

16 - poutcome: outcome of the previous marketing campaign (categorical: "unknown","other","failure","success")

17 - y - has the client subscribed a term deposit? (binary: "yes","no")

The project's objective was to find:

1. Impact of the duration of contact during the current campaign on y (subscription of term deposit).
2. Impact of job (management, blue-collar, admin., retired, student), duration, pdays and poutcome (unknown, other, failure, success) on y.

Question 1:

Simple linear regression was performed on the variables. Here, the dependent variable (Y) is y and the independent variable (X) is duration.

Test of Significance:

The t-stat value 10.08577159 > 1.96 (z-value) confirmed a significant relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variable.

Regression Results:

- R Square

According to the value of R Square, 11.1% of the variability observed in the target variable (y) is explained by the regression model

- Regression equation

y = 0.070761521 + (0.000568024 * duration) + ɛ

where b0 = 0.070761521, b1 = 0.000568024

Conclusion:

Based on the analysis, there is definitely a significant relationship between duration and y. The relationship is positive. So, it can be concluded that as the contact duration increases for clients, they are more likely to subscribe to a term deposit.

Question 2:

Here, the dependent variable is y and the independent variables are management, blue-collar, admin., retired, student, duration, pdays, unknown, other, failure, success

Test of Significance:

Only the variables that passed the significance tests are discussed below.

1. blue-collar - t-stat value -2.21859 < -1.96 (z-value).
2. student - t-stat value 1.980265 > 1.96 (z-value).
3. duration - t-stat value 9.573565 > 1.96 (z-value).
4. success - t-stat value 10.01977 > 1.96 (z-value).

Regression Results:

- R Square

According to the value of R Square, 28.9% of the variability observed in the target variable (y) is explained by the regression model

- Regression equation

y = 0.061077638 + (-0.079223369 * blue-collar) + (0.15574232 * student) + (0.000490128 * duration) + (0.411292707 * success) + ɛ

where b0 = 0.061077638, b1 = 0, b2 = -0.079223369, b3 = 0, b4 = 0, b5 = 0.15574232, b6 = 0.000490128, b7 = 0, b8 = 0, b9 = 0, b10 = 0, b11 = 0.411292707

Conclusion:

1. blue-collar

There is definitely a significant relationship between blue-collar and y. The relationship is negative. Clients who have a blue-collar job are less likely to subscribe to a term deposit.

2. student

There is a significant relationship between student and y. The relationship is positive. Clients who are students are more likely to subscribe to a term deposit.

3. duration

The variables duration and y are significantly related. The relationship is positive. As the contact duration increases for clients, they are more likely to subscribe to a term deposit.

4. success

There is a significant relationship between success and y. The relationship is positive. Clients who have been a part of a “successful” previous marketing campaign are more likely to subscribe to a term deposit.

Final recommendation - Based on the analysis of the dataset of the Portuguese banking institution, for the bank to have many clients who subscribe to a term deposit, they have to:

• Approach fewer clients who have a blue-collar job
• Approach more clients who are students
• Increase the contact duration in the current campaign
• Approach more clients who’ve shown positive outcomes in the previous campaign