Introduction:

Marriage and divorce are essential aspects of societal dynamics, reflecting the state of relationships and family structures within a country. Iraq, a nation with a rich cultural heritage, has witnessed significant changes in marriage and divorce patterns over the years. This project aims to explore the changing trends in marriages and divorces in Iraq, providing insights into the underlying factors and implications for society.

Resources:

• Added “Marriage/Divorce Monthly" and “Marriage/Divorce 2017” based on governorates manually added from the following government official source: مجلس القضاء الاعلى
• Added “Iraq Population Estimates “2016-2017-2018” from the following source: ماكيت تقرير اسقاطات سكان العراق
• Added “Iraq Population Estimates 2019”, ”Iraq Population Estimates 2020,” and “Iraq Population Estimates 2021” from the following source: المؤشرات الديمغرافية والسكانية - الجهاز المركزي للاحصاء
• Added “Iraq Population Estimates 2022” from the following source: الموجز الاحصائي لمحافظات العراق
• Added Marriage rates by countries from the following source: marriage rate per 1000 inhabitants.
• Added Divorce rates by countries from the following source: divorce rates by country 2023.
• All collected and cleaned here at this excel file: Excel File

Challenges:

Data analytics projects often come with their fair share of challenges. Some of the common challenges faced include:

1. Data Collection: For monthly marriage and Divorce numbers, it was challenging to manually collect and transfer the data from images on the government's official website into an Excel file. While for other tables, it was challenging to find and collect since it was on different websites and in different formats (some are HTML tables, and some are in PDF format)

2. Data Quality: Ensuring the quality and integrity of the data is crucial for accurate analysis. In this dataset, there were some missing data, where months have just the total numbers as well months were missing, which required some calculations to fill in some of the missing data. Also, there was missing data for governorates located within the Kurdistan Region. Besides that, the official population data was estimated and not accurate, and there are no population datasets for the year 2023.

3. Data Integration: Integrating data from multiple sources can be complex, especially when dealing with disparate data formats and structures. Ensuring data compatibility and consistency is essential.

4. Additional Data: Some additional data might give an efficient insight into the analysis if provided, like:

   • The unique IDs of marriage and divorce cases.
   • The age of the couple.
   • Social status before marriage.
   • Occupation and salary of the couple.
   • date of marriage in divorce cases.
   • Reason for divorce.

Obtaining additional data has proven challenging due to the difficulty in reaching the government authorities and obtaining feedback. I have made requests for additional data from Iraqi government sources, but unfortunately, I have not received any response in return. Similarly, I have also requested the required data about governorates in the Kurdistan Region from the Kurdistan Region government source but have not received any response in return.

Questions:

In addition to these challenges, data analytics projects are driven by specific questions that need to be answered. These questions can vary depending on the project and its objectives. Some common questions include:

1. How have the numbers of marriages and divorces changed over time?
2. What factors may contribute to the fluctuations in marriage and divorce rates?
3. How do the numbers of marriages and divorces vary between different governorates?
4. How do the rates of marriage and divorce in Iraq compare to those in other countries?

Data Collection, Cleaning, Processing, and Analysis:

I sourced monthly data on marriage and divorce rates in Iraq from reputable governmental and statistical sources. These datasets spanned several years and covered various regions within the country. To conduct this study, I embarked on a comprehensive data collection and analysis process. The following steps were taken to ensure the accuracy and reliability of my findings:

• Try to fill in the missing cells for May 2017 and December 2017 to calculate the difference in marriage and divorce rates between 2017 and the other months in the monthly marriage and divorce data. Subtract the marriage and divorce rate of 2017 from the rates of the other months in the dataset "Marriage and divorce monthly".
• New columns have been included: 'Marriage_Total', 'Divorce_Total' and 'Date'.
• I have added a new field called 'Year_Full_Seq' to the dataset. This field will help identify which years have complete data. Upon analysis, it was found that the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 have complete months of data. However, there are missing months in the years 2020 and 2021, mainly due to the impact of COVID-19. The year 2022 has only one missing month, which is April. To account for this gap, I have created a full-year cycle starting from May 2022 until April 2023.
• Make a Pivot table from Marriage/Divorce monthly to sum Baghdad-K (Karkh) and Baghdad-R (Resafa) values into the Baghdad governorate at "Baghdad" sheet, and then include it in the main Marriage/Divorce monthly.
• I cleaned and processed all the population tables to ensure accurate results.
• I created an exciting new table called "Population 2017–2022" to store all the population data. This table will have three columns: Governorate, Year, and Population.
• The following measured columns have been incorporated into the dataset "Marriage/Divorce Monthly": Population, marriage rate (calculated as the total number of marriages per 1000 residents), and divorce rate (calculated as the total number of divorces per 1000 residents) were done by matching the population with the date of the marriage and divorce row input. The marriage rate or divorce rate can be calculated by dividing the number by the population and multiplying by 1000.
• I have compiled the latest "marriage rate per 1000 inhabitants" data for each country and computed it using a formula. The outcomes are now recorded in a new sheet named "marriage-rate-world".
• After importing the Excel file in Power Bi, I used Power Query and Dax to make the data ready for visualization.
• The dataset used for analyzing the worldwide rates of countries was collected over different years and therefore did not represent all countries in the same year of collection, but I used It just to show the rank and impact of Iraq rates compared to rates worldwide.

Results:

The analysis of the marriage and divorce data in Iraq revealed several interesting findings:

1. Changing Trends: Over the past decade, there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of marriages in Iraq. This decline can be attributed to socio-economic factors, cultural shifts, and changing attitudes towards marriage. From 2017 to 2019, the number of divorces in Iraq saw a decline. However, from 2019 to 2022, the number has a slightly decrease. This trend is surprising, and it is possible that the decrease in divorces during this period can be attributed to the growing awareness among individuals regarding the responsibilities and significance of marriage.
2. Seasonal Patterns: In certain months, marriage rates decline as a result of Muslims observing certain traditions that discourage marriage during two specific lunar months in the Islamic calendar: Ramadan and Muharram. This trend is particularly noticeable in the southern governorates. Although the divorce rates in all governorates have remained relatively stable, there is an interesting trend that occurs in December. During this time, there is a noticeable decrease in divorce rates because many courts postpone their work until the following year.
3. Regional Variations: The data analyzed showed significant disparities in marriage and divorce rates among various regions. Notably, the capital city, Baghdad, exhibited higher divorce rates compared to other regions. Additionally, Al-Basra, Karbala, Al-Najaf, and Dyala also recorded relatively higher rates of divorce. These discrepancies suggest the presence of potential societal and cultural influences. Conversely, governorates like Ninwa and Anbar had the highest marriage rates, followed by Karbala, Al Muthanna, and Baghdad. These elevated marriage rates also reflect the impact of societal and cultural factors in these regions.
4. Worldwide Rates: Based on what was found, Iraq has a marriage rate of 8.42, which is higher than the global average of 5.94. This indicates that marriages are relatively more common in Iraq compared to many other countries worldwide. In fact, Iraq ranks 21st in terms of the highest marriage rates globally. On the other hand, Iraq's divorce rate stands at 1.94, slightly higher than the worldwide average of 1.7. This suggests that divorces are relatively more prevalent in Iraq compared to the global average. In terms of ranking, Iraq is positioned in 33rd place among countries with the highest divorce rates.
5. Divorce at Court: It has been observed that in the southern governorates, a significant number of divorces occur outside of the court system. This trend can be attributed to the cultural norms prevalent in the southern region of Iraq, where families and tribes often strive to resolve social issues internally. Consequently, many divorces in this area are mutually agreed upon by Both sides of the married couple. In the northern part of Iraq, divorce through the court system is prevalent and is estimated to make up approximately 30% to 60% of all divorce cases in these regions.

Recommendations:

Based on the insights gained from this project, I propose the following recommendations:

1. Improve Data Collection and Quality: Collaborate with relevant government agencies to obtain comprehensive and accurate data on marriages and divorces in Iraq. Also, implement data validation processes to identify and address any inconsistencies or missing data. Utilize data cleaning techniques to improve data quality.
2. Explore Additional Data: Efforts should be made to obtain additional relevant data, such as unique IDs of marriage and divorce cases, age of the couple, social status before marriage, occupation, salary, date of marriage in divorce cases, and reasons for divorce. This data could provide valuable insights into the underlying factors influencing marriage and divorce rates.
3. Conduct In-depth Regional Studies: Conduct focused studies on regions with significant variations in marriage and divorce rates, such as Baghdad, Al-Basra, Karbala, Al-Najaf, Dyala, Ninwa, and Anbar. Investigate specific socio-economic, cultural, and demographic factors that contribute to these differences.
4. Analyze Socio-economic Factors: Analyze socio-economic indicators, such as employment rates, income levels, and educational attainment, to understand their impact on marriage and divorce rates. This can help identify potential correlations and causations.
5. Engage with Stakeholders: Collaborate with sociologists, psychologists, and other experts to gain a comprehensive understanding of the societal implications of changing marriage and divorce patterns in Iraq.
6. Awareness Campaigns: Initiating awareness campaigns to promote the importance of marriage and family values can help address the declining marriage rates. These campaigns can emphasize the benefits of healthy relationships and provide resources for couples.
7. Support Systems: Developing support systems and counseling services for couples facing marital challenges can contribute to reducing divorce rates. Providing access to professional help and guidance can improve relationship satisfaction and potentially prevent divorces.
8. Update and Expand the Study: It is crucial to continually update the analysis with new data to keep up with the changing patterns in marriage and divorce rates in Iraq. Additionally, extending the study to include more years would allow for the capture of long-term trends. This research can provide valuable information to policymakers as they work towards addressing societal issues related to marriage and divorce. The findings from this project can also serve as a basis for future research and the development of policies in this crucial field.