"#GGMU": The Maven World Cup Challenge Reimagined
About this project
INTRODUCTION
Being a Manchester United fan should be considered a hazardous occupation. Even as a casual fan, it's extremely dangerous to be on the hook with them because you never know when you’ll get shafted again. It’s almost the same pain level as being a Trinidad and Tobago football fan. Except I can turn off United whenever I need a break. T&T? Not so much. To erode the pain of another failed attempt at qualification for the Soca Warriors and to quell the “Bring back Birchall, call back Yorke!” chants echoing in my cranium, I decided to pre-occupy myself with a most curious question:
“What are the odds of a United forward winning the World Cup this year?”
METHODOLOGY
The information was downloaded from the Data Playground page on the Maven Analytics website. Data from the world_cups, world_cup_groups, and international_matches tables were compiled into one sheet entitled “Results of Qualifying Nations”. Other information such as the placing of each country at the end of the 2022 World Cup was sourced from online articles.
The data was separated into three larger categories - “Results - Last 10 Home Games”, “Results - Last 10 Away Games” and “World Cup 2022 Performance”. The COUNTIFS function was used to tally the number of wins, losses and draws across each category and a percentage was derived to allow the categories to be compared.
The accumulated percentage of wins in home games and away games (while considering past performances) was used to calculate the probability of a team winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup. These probabilities were attributed to Manchester United Forwards from 4 countries – Brazil, Portugal, England and Uruguay. Cristiano Ronaldo was still included in the count since his contract was supposed to end at the end of the 2022/23 (June 2023) season. Manchester United chose to terminate Ronaldo’s contract with immediate effect two days after the start of the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
A graphic was then created to represent the probability of each “player” becoming a champion with their team. Information concerning this graphic is to be read as if the World Cup has not yet commenced.
This information was then compared with the actual World Cup performance of each nation to gauge against their pre-World Cup performance. This was also compiled into a graphic for display purposes. It is acknowledged that this is an oversimplified way of finding winning probabilities and that playing conditions, squad changes due to injury and illness should always be considered. However, this is meant to be a demonstration of data visualization skills and basic Excel proficiency and should be treated as such.
RESULTS
Manchester United Football Club has four Forwards involved in the FIFA 2022 World Cup to be held in Qatar - Antony Matheus dos Santos (Brazil), Cristiano Ronaldo (Brazil), Marcus Rashford (England) and Facundo Pellistri (Uruguay). Each player has been deemed fit for competition.
- Brazil has a 75%-win rate coming into the FIFA 2022 World Cup. They have won one more game at home (8 wins at home, 7 wins away) and they have lost just one game in the last 20 games played. Based on their last five World Cup outings, they are expected to exit no earlier than the Quarter Finals.
- Team Portugal has won just 12 of their last 20 games – a 60%-win rate. Only a third of their wins have come away from home (4 wins away), They have a 40% away win rate and a 30%-loss rate. Based on their last five World Cup outings, they are expected to exit no earlier than the Final Sixteen
- Team England has a 50%-win rate (total 10 wins) coming into the FIFA 2022 World Cup. They picked up five wins away and five wins at home in the last 20 games played. The Three Lions lifted the trophy at least once on their home turf in 1966 and, based on their last five World Cup outings, are expected to exit no earlier than the Quarter Finals.
- Team Uruguay are two-time champions, and they are coming into the FIFA World Cup with a 50%-win rate and a 30%-loss rate in the last 20 games played. Uruguay have had a mixed bag of results in the last five World Cups in terms of where they exit so it is difficult to say if this bodes ill for the team.
DISCUSSION
There is a saying that goes that “Winning is a habit”. And for a stage as large as the World Cup, successful teams will want their old habits to die hard. Team Brazil has five titles under their belt and seem to be on the charge for title number six. In just over fifteen months of football, they have won sixteen of their twenty games prior to this World Cup and drawn four with just one loss to Team Argentina, who also look to be in winning ways just before the World Cup (80%-win rate). In terms of form, Brazil looks quite formidable. Should they continue this path, their chances of going all the way look very optimal even with Argentina just ahead and a very hungry Lionel Messi.
Team Portugal is 15% behind Team Brazil in terms of win rate, however, they have never lifted the trophy and may be looking to settling the Messi v Ronaldo debate once and for all. A 60%-win rate spells consistency, however, at this stage, Team Portugal will want to up the ante if they wish to catch up to the likes of frontrunners, Argentina. Team England will be looking to add title Number Two to their cabinet a full 56 years after their first on home turf. It’s an uphill climb though – England have just 10 wins in the last 20 games played, five losses and 5 draws. They are used to making it to the Final Eight, so if they can get some momentum going for yourself, they stand a half-chance (literally) of making a repeat.
Team Uruguay have lifted the trophy twice before putting them just behind Brazil in terms of titles. But before the CONMEBOL pops the champagne, it should be noted that Uruguay has a 30% loss rate in the last 20 games played. This is the highest loss rate among the four teams examined. And with their varied results over the last five world cups, it’s difficult to determine with any degree of certainty where this leaves Team Uruguay at this stage of the tournament. But football is a game of anythings and given the illustrious history of this nation, there is no real doubt that Uruguay can make something of this half chance.
RECOMMENDATION
If you’re not inclined toward the current champions, France (50%-win rate) or you’re over the Messi and Ronaldo fan parades, putting your money on Antony and Team Brazil is a reasonably safe bet. They seem to be barreling along toward a possible Title Number Six. Portugal is another reliable pick, although given that they have never secured a title for themselves, it is the riskier choice even with the psychological advantage of Cristiano Ronaldo.
Post Script: After the Cup.
The great debate has been settled. For most of us at least. Argentina and the G.O.A.T Lionel Messi are now the FIFA World Cup Champions. They won 86% of their matches this tournament to do it, edging out a formidable (and my favorites for the final) French team that featured Legend In The Making, Kylian Mbappe. The French were runners up with a 71%-win rate in this tournament although they only came into the tournament with a 50%-win rate.
Our tracked forwards performed with merit. Marcus Rasford and Team England topped the study’s standings, finishing 6th in the tournament, winning 60% of their games. An improvement on their pre-World Cup campaign win rate of just 50%. For a minute, the Lions had us all believing in winding miracles. Sadly, it was not to be as England were knocked out by France in the quarter finals.
Just behind them in 7th place was the pick to go all the way, Antony and Team Brazil. Brazil actually performed below expectations winning 60% of their World Cup games after coming in with a 75%-win rate. All in all, Team Brazil just missed out this year losing on penalties to eventual third place winners, Croatia in their quarter final round fixture. Disappointing, but not deflating.
Portugal finished 8th – a disappointing (what seems to be) end to the very illustrious international career of Cristino Ronaldo. They were knocked out of the quarter finals by an impressive (and eventual 4th place finishers) Moroccan outfit - the dark horses of the tournament. Ronaldo and Team Portugal managed to stay consistent at their 60% win rate for this tournament but it wasn’t enough on this occasion exuding a tearful departure from the Captain. Here’s wishing the big man the very best in the rest of his football career should this be has last appearance for his homeland.
Team Uruguay would have loved a different tournament altogether. They placed 20th in this year’s competition only managing to muster a 33% win rate, a 17% slip on their pre-World Cup performance. This will sting for young Pellistri and Co. and who would blame them? Getting knocked out of the Group Stages is always a tough pill to swallow especially when it had to be decided by someone else’s result. Such is the beautiful game.
Additional project images
